The @KelpDAO incident response is a relevant example of how DeFi protocols are handling these situations. Contracts were paused within 45 min of the initial event, likely preventing an additional $95M in losses, with early coordination alongside groups like SEAL-911 as the broader DeFi United recovery effort took shape. What stands out from a balance sheet perspective is Kelp’s decision to commit 2,000 ETH (~$4.6M) to the recovery fund. Based on their last ~$10M funding round, this represents a significant share of their capital base. In comparison, some larger ecosystem participants, including LayerZero, have not yet publicly detailed capital commitments or their role in the recovery process. Kelp also kept rsETH paused until there was alignment on a recovery approach covering both mainnet and L2 users, rather than reopening earlier. At the same time, questions remain around root cause and infrastructure responsibility, with limited detail so far on the LayerZero side. Still developing, but gives some signal into how coordination, capital allocation, and responsibility are being approached in practice rn.

I guess the coins I like the most going into the new cycle are these: 1. $HYPE (perps, L1) 2. $TAO (AI, L1) 3. $NEAR (AI, L1, privacy) 4. $LIT (perps, the best bet on perps after HYPE) 5. $PUMP (memecoins, speculation) 6. $ZEC (L1, privacy) 7. $MON (new L1) 8. $MEGA (new L2) New coins good, old coins bad. HYPE, LIT, PUMP, MON, MEGA has never been in a bull. Well, you could argue HYPE launched at the tail of the bull, but not a full cycle. TAO and NEAR are clear tokens in the AI narrative. ZEC is the "VC-privacy coin". But tokens are not stocks, they have no value. Yes, and no. I think this is one of the hardest "dilemmas" of the new cycle. Betting on tokens in 2023 felt like a no-brainer. We all had hopes that our coins would make a comeback at some point. Now, in 2026, with an infinite number of tokens, it's harder than ever to pick something. There is a huge difference between a good product and a good token, and since most tokens are governance tokens, do we really need them? Maybe not, but it remains the main vehicle for speculation. What about BTC, SOL, ETH? BTC should always be a part of a core portfolio, maybe SOL and ETH also, but I think the ones above will outperform compared to them. Anyway, my gut feeling says that there will be something else that takes the spotlight, and that "the new thing" will outperform all of the 8 I listed. These are my thoughts today. Next week or next month I could already have changed my mind, so NFA and do your own research.

An interesting opportunity on Polymarket. Something close to a sure win on MegaETH. 1. MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Above 600m FDV, Yes 43c (expires June 30, 2026) 2. Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026: No, 44c So the only thing that could kill the bet is if MegaETH launches before June 30th at an FDV lower than 600m. Ofc, anything can happen, but I see it as a bit unlikely (it trades at 1,3b FDV in Hyperliquid premarkets rn). IMO this should return 13% if you bet equal amounts, see the calc in the screenshot. Obviously, no big size, but a cool bet nevertheless. 43c = 2.31 decimal odds 44c = 2.22 decimal odds

It's weird times, man. On one hand I feel like we're in a time where you'll get handsomely rewarded for buying the dip now, but on the other hand I feel like there isn't many good news to wait for. We have the ETFs, the institutions are here, the tech works perfectly, but yet, finding pmf for most protocols is really hard. As everyone else I am thinking about if the 4-year cycle is real or not. Can it really be this easy that we all buy $BTC at the bottom between the summer and October this year, and then ride happily into ATH together? In my opinion it won't be this easy. I think the next cycle will be even harder than the one we just had, and let's be honest, retail is barely here at all, it's just CT, whales, and institutions fighting with each others. Many CT people from 2021 are pivoting to AI/Claude-experts, and I don't blame them for skating to where the puck is going. Personally I've been enjoying that the market has been more quiet than usual, and I've spent some time traveling and catching up with friends IRL. So what am I doing in crypto atm? Some trades on Hyperliquid and Lighter (oil/SP500, delta neutral on LIT), xStocks on Kamino paired with shorts, still farming some perp DEXes like 01 and Reya, but I almost hope they delay launch until conditions are better. Some stables deployed in Aave, but most stables earning 0% yield atm. Sounds crazy, but the plan is to deploy it during the year when the right opportunity arises. I don't know what that is yet, but I am patiently waiting. Just reading a lot (books, newsletters), scrolling on Twitter and observing. It should be a good time to sharpen your edges and being ready when the time is right.